Price and value
Expected value, market margin, closing prices and what each kind of evidence can establish.
Coming soon · PDF & EPUB
The Long Edge
A practical manual for betting, risk and keeping an honest record.
By A. N. Edvardsen
“Knowing a sport and making money from betting on it are different skills.”FROM THE OPENING CHAPTER
The premise
A good opinion
can still be a bad bet.
You can understand the event, pay the wrong price and lose money. You can find value and stake it badly. And you can mistake a winning run for evidence that your process works.
This book separates those problems. It explains the calculations, the practical constraints and the records you need to judge your own decisions. It does not promise a profitable system.
The manuscript is in progress. No preorder or book checkout is open.
What it covers
The decisions behind the bet.
Bankroll and staking
Kelly, fractional Kelly and choosing a stake when your probability estimate is uncertain.
Variance and behaviour
Drawdowns, misleading winning runs and decisions made under pressure.
Markets and execution
Fixed odds, exchanges, pools, costs, liquidity and settlement on the intended terms.
Racing and models
Worked racing applications, sport-specific contracts and testing a model without borrowing from the future.
Records and review
Calibration, review routines and deciding how betting fits the rest of your life.
From the current manuscript
The price changes the decision.
“Consider a selection with a genuine one-in-four chance. Decimal odds of 5.00 are attractive. Odds of 3.50 are not. Nothing about the selection changed between those two offers. Only the price changed, and that was enough to change the decision.
The same separation runs through the rest of betting. Finding an opportunity is one task. Choosing the stake is another. Executing at the intended terms is another. Evaluating the result requires a record of all three.”
Chapter 1 · Introduction: The Honest Premise. Draft wording may change.
Available now
Put the record
in place.
The Long Edge Bet Tracker is the companion Google Sheets template. It brings together P&L, closing line value, calibration, bankroll and a fractional Kelly calculator.
$49.99 once. No subscription. The planned tracker + book bundle will also be $49.99 when the book is ready, with the book included at no extra charge. No book is delivered yet.
Questions
Before publication.
When will the book be ready?
There is no fixed release date yet. This page will be updated when the manuscript and files are ready.
What formats are planned?
PDF and EPUB. Amazon publication is a separate plan; there is no live Amazon edition linked here yet.
Do I need to buy the tracker to use the book?
No. The book stands on its own. The tracker is an optional, ready-made tool for the record-keeping it describes.
Who is it for?
Adults who know the basics of betting and want to make fewer avoidable mistakes. You do not need to aim for a professional career. You do need to examine your own assumptions.